New federal rules are making it harder for people to keep their CalFresh benefits, California’s food assistance program (known nationally as SNAP). To understand what that means for our neighbors, Tipping Point funded research from the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality (Stanford CPI). The result: between 106,000 and 145,000 Bay Area residents may fall into poverty, or deeper into poverty, due to expanded CalFresh work requirements.
Here’s what the research found and why it matters.
How are CalFresh work requirements changing?
H.R. 1, the 2025 federal law also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” expands CalFresh work requirements. CalFresh already has work requirements for some adults. H.R. 1 expands who has to meet them. Under H.R. 1:
- The work requirements now apply to adults up to age 64, up from 54.
- The work requirements now apply to parents of children 14 and older.
- People experiencing homelessness, veterans, and young adults who were in foster care are no longer exempt from work requirements.
- California was previously able to waive these work requirements statewide. Now the state can only waive the requirements in counties with unemployment above 10% (which does not include any Bay Area counties).
The rules took effect for new applicants in June 2026. Current recipients will have to follow them when they renew their benefits.
Research shows work requirements mainly reduce the number of people receiving food assistance, with little evidence that more people end up working. People often lose benefits over paperwork problems or unpredictable schedules, not because they aren’t trying to work.
Key findings for the Bay Area
About 126,000 Bay Area households, containing roughly 309,000 people, include an adult at risk of losing CalFresh. (See Stanford CPI’s technical appendix for how they determine who is “at-risk”.) While the work requirements target able-bodied adults, about 1 in 3 of these at-risk households include a child, a senior, or a person with a disability. When one member of a household loses benefits, the whole household is impacted.
Stanford CPI modeled two scenarios: 70% of at-risk adults lose benefits (the state’s own projection) and 100% lose benefits.
1. Up to 145,000 residents could fall into or deeper into poverty
Of the roughly 309,000 people at-risk of losing CalFresh, Stanford CPI projects the following would fall into poverty or fall deeper into poverty:
| Scenario | Number of residents falling into or deeper into poverty | Share of at-risk residents falling into or deeper into poverty |
| 70% of at-risk adults lose CalFresh | 106,000 | 34% |
| 100% of at-risk adults lose CalFresh | 145,000 | 47% |
2. The impact is starkest for people already in poverty
The biggest projected effect is that residents will be pushed deeper into poverty. In the more severe scenario, the deep poverty rate (living on less than half the poverty line*) among at-risk residents would rise 21%. The effect on residents just above the poverty line is smaller: the overall poverty rate would rise 6%. This difference is due to CalFresh having a larger poverty-fighting impact for those deeper in poverty.
| Among at-risk residents | Today | If 70% lose benefits | If 100% lose benefits | Increase (70% / 100%) |
| In poverty | 44.1% | 45.5% | 46.9% | 3% / 6% |
| In deep poverty | 14.1% | 16.1% | 17.0% | 14% / 21% |
*The California Poverty Measure poverty line in 2024 is an annual income of $53,146 for a family of four.
3. San Francisco and Alameda could see the sharpest jumps in deep poverty for at-risk residents
While the increase in deep poverty for residents at risk of losing CalFresh will vary between counties, it will be high across the board.
| County | Residents in at-risk households | Deep poverty today | Deep poverty if 100% lose benefits | Increase |
| Alameda | 90,000 | 8.8% | 11.8% | 34% |
| San Francisco | 62,000 | 14.2% | 18.5% | 31% |
| Santa Clara | 75,000 | 16.5% | 18.6% | 12% |
| Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo | 82,000 | 17.6% | 20.2% | 14% |
4. The changes reach across Bay Area communities
About 116,000 residents at risk of losing CalFresh are Asian or Pacific Islander (38%), 92,000 are Hispanic (30%), and 100,000 (32%) are Black, white, or another race or ethnicity.
What this means for the Bay Area
These are projections, and the real impact will depend on how the state and counties respond to the new rules. But the direction is clear. In a region where more than 1.8 million residents already struggle to make ends meet, and half of residents in poverty live in a household with a full-time worker, cutting food assistance will make a hard situation harder. CalFresh alone keeps more than 83,000 Bay Area residents above the poverty line.
The outcome isn’t set. The more people who keep their benefits, the smaller the harm. Helping eligible residents understand and meet the new requirements and supporting local governments to streamline their verification processes can keep families fed.
Looking ahead
This research is part of Tipping Point’s commitment to investigate the conditions that keep poverty in place and use evidence to guide solutions. As federal policy shifts, we’ll continue to:
- Fund research that shows how policy changes affect Bay Area residents.
- Support organizations helping residents access and keep safety net benefits.
- Invest in policy and advocacy that protects and strengthens the safety net.
Read Stanford CPI’s statewide analysis here. Learn more about how Tipping Point invests in research and policy change.
